Without a doubt, this year is going to be huge for both Canon and Nikon. With Nikon acknowledging itself being in a transitional period from DSLR to mirrorless (see Keiji Oishi’s DPReview interview) and aiming to release a total of 23 Z mount lenses by the end of 2021, it is clear that the Z system is going to be Nikon’s priority in the near future. Canon’s aggressive RF mount lens releases, as well as the announcement of the Canon EOS R5 are also indications of the company’s commitment to its new mirrorless system.
In fact, the release of Canon’s EOS R5 is going to push other manufacturers to try to match this offering. With in-body image stabilization (IBIS), continuous shooting speed of 12 FPS or 20 FPS using the electronic shutter, ability to shoot 8K video, dual CFexpress card slots, all tucked inside a beautifully designed camera with proven Canon ergonomics, this will be a hard camera to beat by other manufacturers. If Canon does it right, this will be the one camera that does it all – no need to go for separate dedicated video or high-megapixel camera bodies.
Nikon has already gone with two different cameras with its mirrorless system: a general-purpose Z6 with a 24 MP sensor, and a high-resolution Z7 with a 45 MP sensor. If the company continues this trend, we might see two different camera bodies released – one that will directly compete with the EOS R5 (something like a Nikon Z8), and one that will replace the Z6 (possibly released later in 2020, or perhaps even 2021).
When it comes to lenses, both manufacturers are focusing heavily on their mirrorless lenses. Canon has already pointed out that it will shift its development efforts towards RF-mount lenses. Nikon has already released the AF-S NIKKOR 120-300mm f/2.8E FL ED SR VR this year and says that it will continue to support the Nikon F mount during its transition period, but realistically speaking, I doubt we will see any more F glass in the next few years. Nikon will most likely do the same as Canon in order to keep up, focusing on making more Z mount lenses.
Here is the full line-up of Nikon Z lenses at the moment:
- Nikon Z DX 16-50mm f/3.5-6.3 VR
- Nikon Z DX 50-250mm f/4.5-6.3 VR
- Nikon Z 14-30mm f/4 S
- Nikon Z 20mm f/1.8 S
- Nikon Z 24mm f/1.8 S
- Nikon Z 24-70mm f/2.8 S
- Nikon Z 24-70mm f/4 S
- Nikon Z 24-200mm f/4-6.3 VR
- Nikon Z 35mm f/1.8 S
- Nikon Z 50mm f/1.8 S
- Nikon Z 58mm f/0.95 S Noct
- Nikon Z 70-200mm f/2.8 VR S
- Nikon Z 85mm f/1.8 S
That’s a total of 13 lenses. According to the Nikon Z roadmap, we will see 10 more Z mount lenses by the end of 2021. That’s obviously an ambitious plan, but as Nikon pushes towards faster and more capable autofocus in its Z mirrorless cameras, it will need to also put some effort towards making high-quality super-telephoto lenses before too long. It would be great to see Z mount versions of the 300mm f/4 PF and 500mm f/5.6 PF lenses before high-end super telephotos like the 600mm f/4.
Canon’s lens line-up is also shaping up very nicely. Compared to Nikon, Canon decided to focus on high-end mirrorless lenses first, so the lenses are quite a bit different in comparison:
- Canon RF 1.4x Extender
- Canon RF 2.0x Extender
- Canon RF 15-35mm f/2.8L IS USM
- Canon RF 24-70mm f/2.8L IS USM
- Canon RF 24-105mm f/4L IS USM
- Canon RF 24-240mm f/4-6.3 IS USM
- Canon RF 28-70mm f/2L USM
- Canon RF 35mm f/1.8 IS STM Macro
- Canon RF 50mm f/1.2L USM
- Canon RF 70-200mm f/2.8L IS USM
- Canon RF 85mm f/1.2L USM
- Canon RF 85mm f/1.2L USM DS
- Canon RF 100-500mm f/4.5-7.1L IS USM
That’s also a total of 13 lenses released so far for the RF mount. Canon promised 6 more RF lenses later this year, which also follows a pretty aggressive release strategy. By the end of 2021, both manufacturers will have over 20 solid, future-proof lenses to choose from.
Sony is obviously far ahead of the game, with a total of 49 lenses to choose from (both E and FE), but if third party lenses are included, the total number of lenses exceeds 150 – a big number to compete against.
I seriously doubt Nikon and Canon will ever open up their mounts to third party manufacturers, but given their popularity, companies like Sigma, Tamron, Tokina, Zeiss and other newer players will most likely continue making lenses. Some might be even able to reverse-engineer the AF capabilities and start making autofocus lenses, similar to what they have done in the past.
Either way, despite Sony’s strong line-up at the moment, I doubt it will be able to expand its market share any further. With both Nikon and Canon thoroughly focused on their mirrorless systems and releasing killer cameras and lenses, it will be hard to persuade existing Nikon and Canon DSLR shooters to switch to a different brand. Especially considering Sony’s poor ergonomics and convoluted menu system, which the company continues to ignore for so many years…
An increasingly desperate Nikon announces 23 new lenses and Z6 and Z7 replacements? I assume that these will be as unavailavle as other recent announcements. I look forward to their z 20-600mm F2!
Hi Nasim
Why do you think there is no S 70-200 f4 lens? I would buy a Z6 with 24-70 f4 and a 70-200 f4 tomorrow. I don’t want/can’t afford the f2.8 version
Cheers Kevin
I understand it’s a business decision and they have to stay relevant but this’ll be the beginning of the end for me. Maybe I’ll start collecting stamps. Oh, wait… :-\
What about Lumix in the race? Where it stands in comparison with these two? Kindly give insight.
Time to lose interest in the hardware.
We are not made of money.
Top of the range iPhones are stupid prices. I only buy one when Apple discontinues it.
As for cameras, I buy used. I could replace my D610 for less than £500 used. At 100 iso on a tripod, is it any different from a Z6 or Z7 or D780 when viewed on an A2 print? Likewise with my 18-35, 25-85 and 70-200/f4?
Thought not.
But look at the price difference. A used D610 or a new D780 – no brainer.
Buying into mirrorless means buying into Z-mount, otherwise there’s no point. And that costs both arms and legs. Has anyone looked at what annuity rates are now? Down 20% … in … one … year. That’s why it’s going sour.
Then there’s Adobe demanding rental payments.
I know they have to stay in business, but there is a limit. And they’ve reached and gone beyond it.
Still, perhaps I should be glad. If enough people max out to buy this stuff, there will soon be good deals on the used market.
I suspect Nikon will release a few more F-mount lenses, actually. Exotic long telephotos already sell in small numbers, and if Nikon introduces any more of them, they’ll want to maximize the potential market by sticking with the F-mount, especially since it would seem that the primary benefit of the wide throat of the Z-mount is to make wider lenses easier to design with fewer optical defects.
I could see another fresnel lens telephoto in the 700-1000mm range, perhaps two. I don’t know enough about optics to know whether a PF zoom is possible, but if so, perhaps Nikon could make a more compact alternative to the 200-500mm f/5.6?
I got a Z50 as a personal introduction to mirrorless. I intentionally just got the FTZ adapter without the kit lenses because I already had DX F mount glass (and there was a limited deal with the FTZ for $46 with the body). As it turns out, everything works fine with the FTZ for my purposes–primarily travel. I’m sure the Z mount glass is “better” (depending upon what “better” is for the given individual and their needs–and their bank account). I’m curious to see what the third party makers offer. It doesn’t look like Nikon is going to make many DX Z lenses for a while, other than the zoom.
I’m convinced mirrorless is the future, but, so far, the Nikon Z mount is just useless for many photographers. No Z lens beyond 200 millimetres? How can you provide wildlife pictures or
coverage of events like sports matches? If you take a picture of a wild bear with a 200 mm lens, I do hope you can run a lot faster than Usain Bolt. Same problem in a football game. If you need to get close
to the players, disgruntled referees might ask you to get out of the pitch.
All the F mount glass is accessible to the Z6 and Z7 cameras. There are plenty of lenses over 200 mm!
True, but I bought the z6 to use Z-mount lenses, which are overall much better, then adapt older lenses.
Unfortunately, D series lenses, of which I have several, won’t auto focus due to the FTZ adapter limitations.
Sony lenses are so expensive, there are almost no cheap lenses that are sharp too.
Nasim,
I rented the Z7 with the 24-70 f4 and liked it very much.
But (1) The sensor on the Z7 needs cleaning more frequently than one is used to with DSLRs. (2) Nikon says I cannot clean it myself. (3) Nikon’s repair service has deteriorated to the point that sending it to Nikon for a cleaning is not an option.
So, that’s it. I stay with what I have until who knows when.
Your reaction?
Ron
P.S. What I have left is D810, 24-70 f2.8G, 70-200 f2.8E, Tamron 35 f1.4, Zeiss 21 f2.8. Used to have Milvus 35 f1.4, 50 f1.4, 135 f2.0 but got fed up with the inconvenience of weight and manual focus.
No matter what Nikon says, it’s no magic involved in sensor cleaning. You need to be careful and patient, but I always clean my camera’s sensor myself. First blow, then dry static brush, after that there’s cleaning with an adhesive stick and if all that fails there are sensor swabs.
And most important: Don’t overdo. Each cleaning contains a risk (same as each use of a camera also contains the risk to drop it accidentally). Minimizing the risk means not to run for full procedure every time you discover a small spot.