With the 180-600 and 70-180 lenses announced, we are close to the end of Nikon's lens roadmap - only two more to go until the end of 2023: the 35mm (probably f/1.2) and 135mm (probably f/1.8).
We will have a total of 37 Z lenses (if I counted correctly) at that point, but according to Nikon's midterm management plan from 2022, there should be 50+ lenses by 2025, so we can expect to see at least 13 new lenses in the next two years after the roadmap is completed.
What do you think we will get? Here are my guesses - only FX lenses, since the DX lineup is so sparse that anything is possible:
1-2 ultra-wide primes: Although Nikon has not released any new primes wider than 20mm since pre-DSLR times, and the ultra-wide range is pretty well covered by 3 zoom lenses, I think they now will take advantage of the new possibilities of the Z mount and we will see an ultra-wide prime in the near future. There could even be two , e.g. a 16mm f/2.8 (compact line, similar to the 28/f.28 and 40/2) and a 14mm f/1.8 S.
1 fisheye: This is one of the few obvious gaps in the current Z lens lineup - I guess it will be filled soon. Probably 10mm? Or a zoom similar to the 8-15mm?
1-2 f/1.2 primes: With 35, 50 and 85mm, three of the "classic" lenghts will soon be covered. I guess we will also see a 24mm f/1.2 before long, and maybe a 28mm f/1.2.
1 f/1.8 prime: We are missing the 28mm here - I think it will arrive in the next 2.5 years.
1 compact prime: Besides the above-mentioned possibility of an ultra-wide compact prime, I think something longer would complement the 28/2.8 and 40/2 nicely - we will probably see a 60mm f/2 or f/2.8 before the end of 2025.
1 zoom lens: We already have a great selection of zoom lenses from 14-600mm, but there are two obvious gaps: the 70-200mm f/4 and 70-300mm f/4.5-5.6. While I think that Nikon will complete the "f/4 zoom trinity", I'm not that optimistic about the 70-300mm, since there is already an officially licensed third-party option (Tamron).
2 telephoto classics: While Nikon already has a great telephoto lineup, some classics are still missing: 200mm f/2, 300mm f/2.8 and 500mm f/4. I think we will see a 200mm f/2 and a 500mm f/4 (probably TC) until 2025, while the 300mm f/2.8 will be covered by a zoom lens later (the F mount 120-300/2.8 is still very new).
1 compact telephoto lens: All of Nikons PF/compact telephoto lenses have been very popular so far - why not add another one? There's a gap between the 400mm f/4.5 and 800mm f/6.3. I think it will be filled with a 600mm f/5.6 (or 6.3) PF soon.
1 PC lens: Another gap that I think will be filled soon. Probably 24mm?
So that's 10-12 lenses - add a few DX lenses, and we are at the 13+ lenses that should be available by 2025. What are your thoughts?
You beat me to it, I was going to write an article about this! (And still might.)
There aren't a lot of obvious gaps left. You pretty much nailed it. I'm hoping to see a 16mm f/2.8 prime to mimic Canon's, a couple of tilt-shift lenses, a fisheye, a 60mm+ compact lens, and of course, a 70-200mm f/4 and 70-300mm f/4.5-5.6. I also like your suggestion for a 600mm f/5.6 PF, which would probably be very well received.
Then there's DX, which just needs all the help it can get at the moment!
You beat me to it, I was going to write an article about this! (And still might.)
Sorry about that! ;) I hope you'll still write this article - I'm sure you'll come up with some more thoughts and insights than me in my quick write-up.
And I'm very curious where Nikon is headed with DX, although it doesn't really concern me personally. While I have a Z50, I have no need for any more DX lenses - I use it almost exclusively with the 16-50mm as a pocketable option. Occasionally, I also put the 40mm f/2 on it, and I'm more interested in additional compact FX primes for "dual-use" than actual DX lenses.
I would enjoy some 1.4 prime lenses, but I don't think that's on Nikon's plans for now. Yes to basically everything you said. I'd also think a zoom macro, or a 200mm macro would be nice things to see in the future.
On the DX side of things it's easier to imagine things, as they're almost all missing 😅 but I'd expect a decent mid to high end dx camera to come with or before a chunck of those lenses (fingers crossed)
@abarataphoto For the zoom macro / 200mm macro, take a look at the Z 70-180mm f/2.8. It reaches 1:2 magnification, and with the 2x TC, it goes to 1:1 magnification (at 360mm, which is pretty sweet for working distance).
The main lenses I think Nikon should work on are:
- 300 f/4 PF, updated from the old 300PF, or maybe just a normal 300 f/4
- 600 f/5.6 or f/6.3 PF
- Wide angle macro, like the Laowa 15mm which gives 1:1
- 70-300 zoom to replace the DSLR AF-Ps
- 105mm f/1.4 to replace the DSLR version
- 200mm f/2, probably not going to happen
I wonder about tilt-shift lenses, as well as a replacement for the 200mm Macro, which there is nothing like.
Though those would no doubt come after the already mentioned lenses since they're much more specialized and correspondingly have less demand.
And boy oh boy do I want a 14mm f/1.8. The 20mm is just a bit too tight.
I know it would be crazy, but I'd like to see more TC lenses, like a 400mm f4.5 TC.
As a working professional, the only three lenses at this point I'd be interested in, are the 24 and 85 PC's, which I'd likely rent instead, or a 35mm f/1.2, which I'd also probably only rent.. I dunno, me and the 35 1.8 have a love/hate relationship. I just hope the 35 1.2Z won't be cartoonishly big like the 50 and 85 1.2's.
..., a 70-200mm f/4...
I was waiting for this lens as well. I still have my F mount version which is a great lens. But I found that the focus is not always accurate on a Z body (green bow while the focus is off, doens't happen all the time).
I recently picked up a 24-200 after watching a comparison video by Stuart McGlennon on Youtube. He is a professional photographer who has been using this lens for several years. Stuart has an art gallery shop in the Lake District and is very happy with the large prints from images shot with this lens. He put out an in depth review video where he compared the 24-200 to the 70-200 f2.8 and the results surprised him. I bought the 24-200 after watching this video.
The 24-200 is quite small and lightweight and would also work great on my Z50 (for travel). The Z glass is amazing; even the "low budget" versions perform very well.
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Pascal Hibon
Flickr: https://www.flickr.com/photos/phibon/
Website: https://pascalhibon.net/
I'd like to see some high quality DX lenses. I doubt it will happen.
I do prefer to take the Z50 on longer hikes, but if I think that I might do any serious shooting, I lug along the heavier Z7 II camera and lenses. I think I had a DX 16-80 f/2.8 or something similar back in my D5300 days. It'd be nice if they'd do something like that again.
I'd like to see some high quality DX lenses. I doubt it will happen.
I do prefer to take the Z50 on longer hikes, but if I think that I might do any serious shooting, I lug along the heavier Z7 II camera and lenses.
The Z0 kit lenses are quite good quality. The great thing about the 16-55 is that it is small and lightweight it complements the Z50 perfectly. I sometimes use the 28 mm on the Z50 too. By the way, that is a great street lens on the Z50.
"Quality" lenses will always have a tendency to be a bit larger and heavier. Not sure if you would still pickup your Z50 for hikes with heavier and larger glass on it.
You might just as well use FX glass on your Z50 instead of buying dedicated DX glass. At least with FX glass you can use them on both FX and DX cameras.
I recently pickup a 24-200 lens. I haven’t tried it on my Z50 yet but that would also make a good hiking combo.
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Pascal Hibon
Flickr: https://www.flickr.com/photos/phibon/
Website: https://pascalhibon.net/
Cool, looks like one of my predictions will soon come true - the 600mm f/6.3 PF! :)
If the rumored specs (similar size/weight als 500mm f/5.6 PF) are correct, this lens will be a no-brainer for me and will replace the 500 PF as my lightweight telephoto lens for hiking and other cases where I'm size/weight restricted.
Except for the 35 1.2(?), we're done. Everything else in the future will be a surprise. What surprised me the most about what Nikon has done with this roadmap, is that it by and large stuck to it (throwing in a few surprises, having some delays), and provided lenses for all types of photographers. Like its competit ors and its F mount lineup, Nikon has provided several levels of lenses. We have the 1.8 primes, and will soon have a complete set of 1.2 primes. (f1.4 doesnt seem to be in the cards). In the macro lens universe, Nikon has two. love to see a thirdNikon has three sets of trinity zooms (14-30, 24-120, 100-400; 17-28, 28-75, 70-180; and 14-24, 24-70, and 70-200). It has 2 400mm, 2 600mm lenses, and a 800mm lens, and a 180-600. It also has a few cheaper plastic mount primes and zooms.
What it doesnt have, are PC lenses, a 28 1.2 or 1.8, Z mount 180-400 f4, or a 100-300 f2.8. It also doesnt have fisheye primes, or really ultra wide linear primes, or zooms. There is also no 200, 300, or 500 tele. So there is plenty of possible lenses to be introduced. What's next?