I promise, this is not another “DSLR is dead” article. In fact, as I was thinking about this post a few weeks back, I thought of ways not to make it sound like I am trying to bury any brand or camera system, as I am well-aware that discussing photography gear can sometimes bring all kinds of anger in people. Instead, what I want to do in this article, is talk about the state of the camera industry and where things are headed in the near and distant future, and what it means for DSLR owners.
Table of Contents
DSLR Development Has Stopped
The fact of the matter is, DSLR development has basically ceased across all camera brands (with Ricoh / Pentax being the only exception, as the company does not have any intentions or resources with pursuing mirrorless tech). Canon has already confirmed that it moved its lens development efforts to its RF mount, saying that it will not touch the EF mount “unless the market demands it”. Nikon recently said something very similar, pointing out that for the time being, the company will concentrate on mirrorless cameras. Simply put, this is a major shift of R&D resources towards mirrorless, and with the rise of the smartphone, as well as the economic effects of the global pandemic, a double whammy, the process is only getting accelerated. And it looks like things are going to stay this way, at least for a while, until the market stabilizes.
Just when we think that the camera market is about to recover, we get new reports of falling demand, significant losses among camera manufacturers, and reports of shifts in consumer behavior. Yes, the smartphone is continuing its devastating effect on the camera industry, and most companies, including Canon and Nikon, have not been able to really figure out the direction they should be taking. DSLR sales have taken a huge beating and basically plummeted to all-time lows, and the only part of the camera market that seems to be doing comparably better in terms of new sales is mirrorless. So it makes sense that the big two really have no choice but to embrace new tech, or they will be soon looking at the same fate as Olympus.
DSLR Has Already Hit the Innovation Wall
The thing is, DSLR development seems to have reached its maximum potential. What is there left to improve? Cameras like the Nikon D850 or the D6 are near-perfect DSLRs in almost every way, with blazing-fast autofocus systems, crazy continuous shooting speeds, huge buffers, and excellent image quality. You can’t really take phase-detection AF on DSLRs to a whole new level, because of physical and technological limitations. Canon has been adding its Dual Pixel AF (on-sensor PDAF) technology to its recent DSLRs to make them a bit more appealing, and Nikon did the same thing in its D780 DSLR for the same reason. However, it requires one to be in Live View mode (rendering the optical viewfinder completely useless), and it is not like this addition has somehow increased demand and interest in DSLR cameras.
CMOS sensor technology has not really advanced to new levels either, only incremental updates. While we have stacked BSI CMOS sensors now, such as the one from the new Sony A1, it is not like they take high ISO performance to vastly new levels. And even if there was new sensor tech, you can’t really push it as the only new feature – that would upset existing customers who want more features and innovation.
What else could you do? Add IBIS? While it sounds great, implementing IBIS properly on a DSLR is not easy. If you stabilize the sensor without stabilizing the mirror or the pentaprism in the same way, you are going to be looking at a jumpy viewfinder, and it will no longer represent reality. Imagine if your final photo has different framing compared to what you saw on the OVF – that would be frustrating. Pentax has implemented IBIS on its DSLRs, but if you ask any Pentax shooter, they will tell you that they wish the OVF was stabilized as well. Sadly, there is no practical solution to this. Anything you do will just increase the complexity and the size of the DSLR.
So aside from things like sensor resolution, shooting speed, more movie options, maybe some extra in-camera features, there isn’t much room left for real innovation with DSLR cameras.
Mirrorless is the Tech
Mirrorless technology, on the other hand, opens up all kinds of innovation potential. Just take a look at the recent mirrorless cameras like the Canon EOS R5/R6 and Sony A1. Crazy AF point coverage, advanced scene and subject recognition, face and eye detection that works not just on humans, but also on animals and birds. IBIS, pixel-shift, a boatload of advanced video features, better optics due to reduced flange distance…
I could go on and on, but you get the point. Mirrorless is where technology is today, and there is plenty of room for real innovation. With ever-evolving autofocus systems that utilize machine learning and AI, we will soon see automation that will take away the complexity of using an advanced camera. Point your camera at a subject, and your camera will be smart enough to know what you are trying to photograph. It will know where to focus, providing accurate and consistently good results.
With the sensor technology’s current limitations, we will soon be seeing image averaging capabilities (which is already being utilized on smartphones) making their way into mirrorless cameras, so that your ISO 6400 image looks like an ISO 100 image. Pixel-shift for higher resolution images will eventually take place in-camera, producing a single RAW file. We should be seeing all kinds of smart in-camera image processing as well. And I am just scratching the surface here.
The simple fact is that most future camera innovations will involve heavy use of software and artificial intelligence. Whichever camera manufacturer is going to be stronger in software will ultimately become the leader. You can easily draw parallels from the smartphone industry to the camera industry – that’s eventually where the big camera tech is going to be heading.
Who Cares? I Love My DSLR!
You have probably heard some photographers say something like “you can only pry my DSLR from my cold, dead hands”. It is true that many photographers out there have zero interest in mirrorless technology and prefer using a DSLR. Some continue to use DSLRs for financial reasons, trying to avoid a costly system upgrade, while others have their own reasons, such as preferring OVF over EFV, wanting to shoot with a larger / bulkier camera, etc.
Some photographers have a stable of classic lenses that they want to continue using, and they have no intentions to part with any of them. Whatever the reasons, there will always be those who prefer something different from the masses. This is the same reason why we still have plenty of film shooters today. Technology moves on, but the joy of using classics will always stay for those who want it.
DSLR Production Will Continue For Some Time
At the same time, there are also plenty of DSLR shooters who are looking forward to getting more tech in the future. And for those folks, it is tough to imagine that whatever they have now, might be it. They might not get any more upgrades, and at some point in the future, they might not even be able to buy a brand new DSLR the same way they have been able to in the past.
However, I seriously doubt this will happen anytime soon. In the very distant future, maybe, but we are potentially talking about decades here. And that’s if manufacturing DSLRs for Nikon, Canon, and Pentax is going to cost more than the sales they generate.
How do I know this? Well, considering how long we’ve had digital cameras by now, Canon finally decided to stop the production of its EOS-1v film camera only three years ago. And it took Nikon even longer to discontinue its F6 in October of 2020 – that camera was in production for a whopping 16 years!
I expect DSLR production to continue for at least a decade by both Canon and Nikon. The only issue is the cost of production and upkeep of a large selection of EF and F-mount lenses, as well as a wide array of DSLR cameras. Both companies will need to trim their production lines to a handful of lenses and cameras, and minimize their product support costs. This is going to be difficult for Nikon, as the company has been struggling financially, so it might need to cut its F-mount selection significantly.
Why Manufacturers are Moving to Mirrorless
For many DSLR shooters, the sudden shift from DSLR to mirrorless might be hugely disappointing. I have heard many complaints from current Nikon and Canon DSLR owners who are very unhappy about the situation, and they seem to be confused why mirrorless is so hyped, to the point that manufacturers are transitioning to it.
Well, aside from the technological potential of the mirrorless technology I talked about earlier, moving to mirrorless also makes financial sense. Just think about it. If Canon makes a brand new DSLR like 5D Mark V, what is its sales potential? Existing 5D owners who might consider upgrading? Very few of those would buy lenses with the camera, as they most likely already have a bunch of EF glass to shoot with.
Now if Canon makes a brand new mount, it is not just camera sales we are talking about. There is a huge potential in selling brand new lenses with them as well. So with the launch of a new system, you have a lot more opportunity to upsell lenses and accessories for that system. That’s just business. Both Nikon and Canon are doing the same thing, and we should not be upset about it, as long as the new products are not inferior to their predecessors (and they most certainly are not).
I have already written about the marvels of the new Nikon Z lens trinity. Canon has done the same with its line-up, offering remarkable RF mount lenses that were simply impossible to design in the past. We will be seeing more innovations like that, and I am sure of it.
So if you want the latest tech, you will need to change systems at some point, which will be costly. And camera manufacturers obviously want you to do that, as long as you stay with them. That’s why they are all racing to get the latest and greatest features in cameras while trying to push out as many mirrorless lenses as possible. Some are doing it better than others, so there will be shifts in leadership and market share – that’s a given.
Embrace Mirrorless or Die?
Nobody says that you should be embracing mirrorless. Yes, mirrorless technology will advance and that’s certainly the future. I don’t think anyone can doubt that now. However, if you are happy with your DSLR and don’t see the point of changing systems, why worry? Why waste your time reading online comments from brand shills and fanboys who are only there to defend their purchase decisions? That’s just choice-supportive bias at play, fueled by Internet anonymity.
Even if we never see another DSLR from Nikon and Canon, that’s perfectly fine. It has happened before, and I am sure it will happen again. If someone comes up with some new crazy technology that is far superior to all the mirrorless tech we have today (curved sensors, simplified optics, etc), we will be once again dealing with the transformation of the whole camera industry…
I have been using DSLRs for many years, and if I had the means to support multiple systems, I would have kept my most favorite DSLRs and all the lovely F-mount glass that I had used for so many years (it was especially tough to part with the Noct-NIKKOR 58mm f/1.2, but at least I know it is in very good hands). I am sure others have a similar sense of attachment and memories, at least to some of their gear.
It is not like my photography has vastly improved since I switched to mirrorless. I cannot say that I am enjoying photography a lot more either, and I am sure many others who switched would say the same. I have always been a geek, so technology excites me and fuels my passion. This is also my job, so it is in my best interest to keep up with the latest trends so that I can talk about them here at PL. Keep this in mind when you read my articles and reviews. I am not here to sell you anything. I don’t get paid by any brand to say what I say, and I will always enjoy my freedom. As I have said before, take everything you read on the Internet with a grain of salt, and that includes me.
Ending this post with one of my all-time favorite shots, captured with the Nikon D3S DSLR – an incredible camera for its day:
P.S. It has now been almost 10 years since I wrote my article on the “Future of Digital Cameras“. It was fun to go back and give it a read… will need to revisit this article after a few years and see where we are at!
In fact, there have been too many “DSLR is dead” essays from MILC fanboys which made photographers skeptical. Undoubtedly, those were aimed at sales booster of mirrorless cameras. We understand manufacturers also need to buy food and pay their dues. However, the smartphones have eaten up more than 85% of their market and that scenario is unlikely to change. The current atmosphere is rather a healthy one like the good old film SLR days when only pros and serious hobbyists bought cameras. It should remain like this.
Manufacturers must contemplate relocating their finances to other businesses retaining only the necessary portion for imaging equipment manufacturing business. The sooner they realize this, the better. When they come their senses, we can also expect to see real photographers;’ cameras in the market.
“Manufacturers must contemplate relocating their finances to other businesses…”
Really?
QUOTE Canon Inc., Wikipedia
Canon Inc. is a Japanese multinational corporation headquartered in Ōta, Tokyo, Japan, specializing in optical, imaging, and industrial products, such as lenses, cameras, medical equipment, scanners, printers, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Canon has a primary listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the TOPIX Core30 and Nikkei 225 index. It has a secondary listing on the New York Stock Exchange.
END of QUOTE
QUOTE Nikon, Wikipedia
Nikon’s products include cameras, camera lenses, binoculars, microscopes, ophthalmic lenses, measurement instruments, rifle scopes, spotting scopes, and the steppers used in the photolithography steps of semiconductor fabrication, of which it is the world’s second largest manufacturer.[4] The company is the eighth-largest chip equipment maker as reported in 2017.[5] Also, it has diversified into new areas like 3D printing and regenerative medicine to compensate for the shrinking digital camera market.
END of QUOTE
I’ll leave you to learn about: the FUJIFILM Corporation; the Olympus Corporation; the Panasonic Corporation; and the Sony Group Corporation.
Manufacturers ditch DSLRs, we don’t. There’s no need to. All my pro-body Canon DSLRs are likely to last many years more. Good enough for my remaning hobbyist photography days as I’m already 65. However, might consider an R6 couple of years later to use with a 2x behind my EF 400mm f5.6L retaining AF. Might also stack two 2x extenders behind my EF 300mm f/2.8L IS II USM. Again hope, here also AF will be posdible as it’s achieved directly by the sensor.
Great article. I was a Minolta film shooter (last camera was a Maxxum 9) that transitioned to a Nikon DSLR in 2006. I thought about upgrading to a newer DSLR a few years later and saw that mirrorless was beginning to take hold. I figured it was the future. I keep waiting.
The problem now is mirrorless suffers from the same innovation curve problem that plagued early DSLRs – they’re good cameras but still have so far to go. I have an Olympus M43 camera that I love because of how small and light it is, but it isn’t all-around better than my DSLR – and it’s not just because of the sensor difference, which many like to say; only some aspects are better. Right now, I don’t see any mirrorless cameras from the big three that are materially better than their DSLR predecessors.
I don’t think now is the time to invest in a mirrorless camera system unless the buyer is new to the hobby or vocation. If one really wants to get into it now, I’d recommend treating the camera part as a throw-away and just a means to start collecting some glass. However, I think it makes more sense to do something like snatch up a D780 [or insert brand and model of choice] and related glass at soon-to-be reduced prices and “ride them horses” for a few more years until mirrorless matures and comes down in price.
Mirrorless is definitely the future….in the future.
DSLRs (and digital in general) dumbed down photography, and Mirrorless dumbed it down even further.
Only a complete idiot would say something like this in the year 2021. I can see the argument when the transition first began to happen, but 20 years later, there is no comparison. Digital is far superior to film, and that gap will only continue to widen as the technology keep advancing.
You were kind of wrong in your predictions. Your view back in 2012 was that mirrorless would make good replacements for APS-C cameras, but DSLRs weren’t going anywhere for full frame/pro level.
And literally just the opposite occurred, Full Frame mirrorless killed all DSLR (FF & Crop). The Sony A7III basically single handedly killed the DSLR.
i appreciate your objective review of where the photography industry is headed today. I agree with your observations completely.
I find myself in a bit of s dilemma personally! Like you, I am a huge geek and love keeping up with technology. However I am beginning to realize that time has a way of making it difficult to keep up!
Today, at age 62 and having some health issues to contend with, I am forced to face the reality that the majority of my photography days are behind me. I still enjoy shooting as much as ever, however I am being forced to choose new genres and subjects…more local, creative projects rather than destination projects!
The size and weight advantages of mirrorless cameras are of particular appeal to me, however after a lifetime of shooting Nikon SLR and DSLR bodies, I am deeply invested in the Nikon F-mount ecosystem. Sure, there are FTZ adapters if I were to buy a Nikon Z body, but that somewhat defeats the purpose of switching to mirrorless for the reduced flange optics!
I just don’t know that I will be able to shoot enough to justify the cost of a new camera system. Certainly I would never consider replacing the vast majority of my glass! At this point in life that would be foolish. However I would definitely want a few lenses with any new system.
As attractive as some of the new systems are, I am equally impressed with the radical improvements in mobile phone photography…particularly in Apple’s flagship iPhone models. When you talk about the company who makes the best use of software controlling tje market going forward, Apple would be my odds on bet to be that company!
While it is true that mobile phones do not match the optical quality of interchangeable lens cameras, they are innovating greatly in the areas of AI and computational photography.
When I combine my iPhone 12 Pro Max with Moment’s excellent add-on lenses and a quality image enlargement application such as Topaz Gigapixel AI, I can create some very impressive wall art that can rival my D850 and Nikkor glass.
Certainly, if nothing else. the mobile photography option is becoming an excellent alternative for those who don’t want to invest in a more elaborate mirrorless system.
It is a good tome to be an amateur photographer! Choices abound…and they are getting better all the time!
I will close with this side note going back to DSLRs for a moment. While it is true that the major manufacturers are shifting their R&D resources away from DSLR bodies and lenses, this is an excellent opportunity for the third part lens manufacturers to capitalize on the DSLR installed user base that should be around for a couple of decades.
Sigma’s Art series F mount lenses are very good and their 150-600 is constantly rivaling the Nikkor 200-500! Tamron and Nokina have also developed some nice glass and going forward, they have an opportunity to control the majority of the DSLR market if Nikon and Canon choose to abandon it.
As you pointed out, it will be interesting to pull this discussion out in 5 – 10 years and look at how things actually DID play out! For now, let’s all keep shooting with whatever gear we have and create the beautiful images that capture life’s special moments!
I enjoyed your article and your D3S photo, I use to have that camera myself and loved it. I own (2) D850 cameras and love them to death, I also have a Panasonic Lumix 4/3rds mirrorless for travel/grandkid pics. I shoot everything from Macro to Landscape/Birding and have even been persuaded to do a few weddings. I know the future is mirrorless but to be real it isn’t necessarily driven to give you better images, in many ways it is marketing that is required to get people ramped up to spend money so these camera companies stay in business. I can take great pictures with my DSLR, I can do the same with mirrorless, some features in mirrorless make the job easier but don’t necessarily result in a better image. Remember when the big reason to switch was that mirrorless was much smaller and lighter, this may be true for Micro 4/3rds cameras but the push is full frame and there is not a huge difference in weight or size compared to DSLR’s. The bottom line is camera companies are going to get into the planned obsolescence mode that TV manufacturers and Computer manufacturers have for years so you eventually have to start over. If DSLR support dries up and new features are only available on the latest and greatest mirrorless eventually you will find a must have feature for you and jump ship. Too many people can’t help but brag about having the latest this or that whether it be a car or a camera. I admire Sony’s efforts with mirrorless (Being a former Minolta owner) but look at the A1, who needs 30 fps, I’m sorry, no one, who wants to edit and view all those extra files. Many features become something that creates a competition between Manufacturers and create bragging rights but are not necessary in the real world (my opinion) many successful sports photographers get by fine with 14 fps or less. The future is mirrorless no question about it but I’m going to enjoy the heck out of my DSLR’s a while longer before I jump on the proverbial ship.
I enjoyed my dslrs but mirrorless cameras are still too pricey…So basically the Japanese photo technology has screwed me over…It’s like soon I may have buy an electric car over ICE and I know how damned expensive they are at this time…Technology is great IF you can afford it….So far people who have the latest technology want you to pay through the nose or up your butt to aquire it
Hi, may be this is a good time for us to rethink everything about photography. Our gear is only part of being a photographer whether you use mirrorless, DSLR, or film SLR. The advance of technology is great but do not forget the human part in the equation. I have been a Nikon user ever since I start learning photography, from the mechanical era, to the auto focus and then DSLR. I love my current gear D750 and D7200, with both FX and DX lenses. Your don’t feel right when you do not have gear in your hand.
To me a smartphone is not a photography gear, yes it can a picture, that is convenient and that is it. One frustration about the smartphone is the trend in software touchup photo processing and less emphasis on optical photography. Do not forget our beloved Nikon lenses with excellent optics!!
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